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The arm exp-012 could never build. A third-party node's observations injected from a file with no payment sent, so the value of routing knowledge is finally separated from the cost of acquiring it. Served the same observations from the same server, on ten sealed hard-tier files: atomic1 +0.055 (CI excludes zero, sign p=0.016), mx_c3 +0.031 with attempts nearly halved at 8.1 -> 4.4, and lnd -0.029 with attempts going UP, 30.9 -> 33.8. Free, accurate, correctly-scoped information makes lnd worse. Splitting the stream says why, and it is the program's central thesis arriving from a new direction. Successes help everyone. Failures split the field: they help the interval routers and they are the whole of lnd's loss at -0.039, CI excluding zero, worse on 9 of 10 files. An interval router files a failure as an AMOUNT BOUND and will still route half that amount tomorrow, so a served failure is pure information. lnd files it as a penalty on the pair, and a penalty is not amount-aware -- it suppresses the corridor for every amount, so a stranger's failure at a stranger's amount steers lnd off corridors that were fine for what it actually wants to send. I expected mission control's collapse of channels onto node pairs to be the culprit and it is not: 761 directed edges, 761 distinct pairs, no parallel channels, nothing collapses. The damage is in how a failure is represented, not in how it is keyed. The champions could not consume anything at all, because nothing in the SimRouter contract ever asked a candidate to accept third-party knowledge. Hence the two importer variants, each its ancestor plus one method that routes every observation through the same belief update a real attempt makes. Both score identically to their originals cold, so the only thing that changed is the capability. Also adds gen_served_weights.py, which builds the server-side scenario files. The server must be a different node than the consumer or the exercise collapses back into self-warming, which exp-012 part 4 already measured as harmful. |
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| experiments | ||
| DECISIONS.md | ||
| IDEAS.md | ||
| NOTEBOOK.md | ||
| WHY.md | ||