lnd/simulation/lab/experiments
Olaoluwa Osuntokun cda40a3dc0 simulation/lab: record the exp-010 codex-arm verdict
In this commit, we log the code_split2 result, the first verdict
backed by paired statistics. The mechanism the corpus was built to
elicit did emerge: the winner derives unequal split candidates from
estimated corridor sizes and plans route sets with one-step lookahead,
reserving each candidate route while scoring the next shard against
the remainder -- structurally past reactive laddering, and the first
time the speculative in-flight reservation machinery became load
bearing. And yet it loses to mx_c3 on every tier, significantly so
(paired deltas -0.025 to -0.086, sign-test p <= 0.04), including the
splitting corpus itself. The pre-registered resolution caveat stands:
near-binary per-file scores gave selection little gradient to polish
the new machinery, and the same pattern as exp-008 repeats -- the
environment elicits the mechanism, but a 400-eval lineage cannot
out-refine a 900-eval champion. The paired statistics also settle an
informal claim: hb1 and mx_c3 are indistinguishable on mainnet.
Champions of record remain hb1 and mx_c3; the Opus 5 reflection arm
is still running.
2026-07-25 03:11:51 -07:00
..
exp-001-param-smoke.md simulation: add evolved router champions and lab notebook 2026-07-24 13:01:06 -07:00
exp-002-param-run1.md simulation: add evolved router champions and lab notebook 2026-07-24 13:01:06 -07:00
exp-003-seed-router-vs-lnd.md simulation: add evolved router champions and lab notebook 2026-07-24 13:01:06 -07:00
exp-004-code-evolution.md simulation: add evolved router champions and lab notebook 2026-07-24 13:01:06 -07:00
exp-004-sim-audit.md simulation: add evolved router champions and lab notebook 2026-07-24 13:01:06 -07:00
exp-005-sim-audit.md simulation: add evolved router champions and lab notebook 2026-07-24 13:01:06 -07:00
exp-006-breakthrough.md simulation: add evolved router champions and lab notebook 2026-07-24 13:01:06 -07:00
exp-007-mix-followup.md simulation: add evolved router champions and lab notebook 2026-07-24 13:01:06 -07:00
exp-008-drift-evolution.md simulation/lab: close exp-008 -- time-awareness re-evolves, loses anyway 2026-07-24 20:08:33 -07:00
exp-008-drift1-best-candidate.go simulation/lab: close exp-008 -- time-awareness re-evolves, loses anyway 2026-07-24 20:08:33 -07:00
exp-008-drift1-best-candidate.md simulation: document the drift1 winner, resolve exp-008 in the docs 2026-07-24 20:26:46 -07:00
exp-009-mainnet-validation.md simulation/lab: add mainnet-graph validation results 2026-07-24 13:24:22 -07:00
exp-010-split2-best-candidate.go simulation/lab: record the exp-010 codex-arm verdict 2026-07-25 03:11:51 -07:00
exp-010-splitting-pressure.md simulation/lab: record the exp-010 codex-arm verdict 2026-07-25 03:11:51 -07:00
exp-011-code-gen2.md simulation/lab: add exp-011, the code_gen2 insight-transfer run 2026-07-24 16:37:25 -07:00
exp-011-gen2-best-candidate.go simulation/lab: add exp-011, the code_gen2 insight-transfer run 2026-07-24 16:37:25 -07:00