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In this commit, we fold the exp-008 outcome into the site. The drift page's outcome ledger, written before the run, is resolved honestly: the realized result is the first row's mechanism in the second row's shape with the third row's verdict, and each row now carries its resolution inline. A new verdict section presents the evolved clock -- the 35 minute confidence half-life, the 20 minute bound expiry, and the interpolation back to the prior -- alongside two new figures: a decay curve contrasting drift1's confidence fade with lnd's one hour penalty weight, and the six-router drift-test comparison on the same axis scale as the baseline figure so the two read together. The four-tier results table and the drift1-versus-gen2 cut carry the argument, and the closing section separates what the experiment settles from what it cannot. The index and findings pages get the matching surgical flips: status lines move from in-flight to verdict-in, the evidence claim grows to four of four tiers, and the hand-off now points at exp-010 and the code_split1 run. Published as Litbucket version 42.
514 lines
23 KiB
HTML
514 lines
23 KiB
HTML
<!DOCTYPE html>
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<html lang="en">
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<head>
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<meta charset="utf-8" />
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<meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1" />
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<title>Evolving Lightning's next routing algorithm — lnd × GEPA</title>
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<meta name="description" content="An LLM-driven evolutionary search over Lightning routing algorithms, run against lnd's real pathfinding stack in an in-process payment simulator. What it found, and how." />
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<link rel="preconnect" href="https://fonts.googleapis.com" />
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<link rel="preconnect" href="https://fonts.gstatic.com" crossorigin />
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<link href="https://fonts.googleapis.com/css2?family=Newsreader:ital,opsz,wght@0,6..72,300..600;1,6..72,300..500&family=Spline+Sans+Mono:wght@400;500&display=swap" rel="stylesheet" />
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<link rel="stylesheet" href="style.css" />
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</head>
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<body>
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<a class="skip" href="#main">Skip to content</a>
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<header class="site-header">
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<div class="shell">
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<a class="wordmark" href="index.html">lnd<span class="x">×</span>GEPA</a>
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<nav class="site-nav">
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<a href="index.html" aria-current="page">overview</a>
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<a href="findings.html">findings</a>
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<a href="drift.html">drift</a>
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<a href="#run">live run</a>
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</nav>
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</div>
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</header>
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<main id="main">
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<!-- ================= MASTHEAD ================= -->
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<div class="shell masthead">
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<div class="eyebrow">
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Research log<span class="sep">/</span>Lightning Network pathfinding<span class="sep">/</span>July 2026
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</div>
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<h1>Evolving Lightning's <em>next</em> routing algorithm</h1>
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<div class="masthead-grid">
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<p class="standfirst">
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We pointed an LLM-driven evolutionary search at lnd's real pathfinding
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stack, inside a simulator that hides channel liquidity the way the network
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does. <strong>Tuning its parameters found nothing. Replacing the algorithm
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found a lot.</strong>
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</p>
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<div class="glance">
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<div class="g hi">
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<span class="l">attempts per payment<br>mainnet, vs lnd's 19.8</span>
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<span class="v">2.3</span>
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</div>
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<div class="g">
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<span class="l">objective, mainnet<br>vs lnd's 0.694</span>
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<span class="v">0.791</span>
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</div>
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<div class="g">
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<span class="l">evolved lines of Go<br>from a 300-line seed</span>
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<span class="v">1,525</span>
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</div>
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<div class="cap">best evolved router (mx_c3) against lnd's production stack</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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<div class="byline">
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<span>method <b>GEPA reflective evolution</b></span>
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<span>reflection LM <b>gpt-5.6-sol</b></span>
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<span>evaluator <b>cmd/routesim</b></span>
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<span>experiments <b>exp-001 … exp-011</b></span>
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<span>exp-008 <b>verdict in</b> · next <b>exp-010 · code_split1</b></span>
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</div>
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</div>
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<!-- ================= 01 · FINDINGS ================= -->
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<section id="result">
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<div class="shell">
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<div class="sec-head">
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<div class="sec-no">01</div>
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<h2>What the search found</h2>
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<p class="sec-sub">
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Every number below is held out. The closing check ran on a real mainnet
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graph snapshot — lnd's home turf, and a topology the evolved routers had
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never seen.
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</p>
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</div>
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<div class="keyrow wide">
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<div class="key hi">
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<span class="kn">8.6<span class="u">×</span></span>
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<div class="kl">
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fewer HTLC attempts per payment than lnd on the real mainnet graph, at
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the same success rate
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</div>
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<div class="kf">2.3 vs 19.8 attempts · exp-009</div>
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</div>
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<div class="key">
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<span class="kn">4<span class="u">of 4</span></span>
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<div class="kl">
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held-out tiers the evolved routers lead: sealed synthetic test,
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out-of-distribution topologies, mainnet snapshot, drifting liquidity
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</div>
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<div class="kf">the fourth arrived with exp-008</div>
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</div>
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<div class="key">
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<span class="kn">0</span>
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<div class="kl">
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parameter settings, out of 400 evaluations of estimator and cost
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knobs, that beat the lnd defaults
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</div>
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<div class="kf">exp-002 · the negative result that redirected the project</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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<figure>
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<div class="fig-head">
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<span class="fig-t">Attempts per payment on a mainnet snapshot</span>
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<span class="fig-n">Fig. 1 · lower is better</span>
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</div>
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<div class="plot resp" id="fig-attempts"></div>
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<figcaption>
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12,161 nodes, 39,659 channels, 100 payments from the network's
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highest-degree node. Success rates are close — lnd 0.790, seed 0.820,
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evolved 0.810 — so the whole difference lands in <b>how much probing it
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takes to get there</b>. This is the tier lnd should win: its defaults were
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tuned for this graph, while the evolved routers were bred entirely on
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synthetic topologies.
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</figcaption>
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</figure>
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<figure>
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<div class="fig-head">
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<span class="fig-t">Composite objective, by router and held-out tier</span>
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<span class="fig-n">Fig. 2 · higher is better</span>
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</div>
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<div class="plot resp" id="fig-champions"></div>
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<div class="legend">
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<span class="item"><i style="background:#a83f22"></i> evolved by GEPA</span>
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<span class="item"><i style="background:#8a8175"></i> baseline (lnd, or hand-written)</span>
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</div>
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<figcaption>
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Objective is <span class="mono">success − 0.01·min(extra attempts, 15) −
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0.00002·min(fee ppm, 5000)</span>. The two evolved routers lead on all
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three tiers. On synthetic corpora the gap is mostly success rate; on the
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real graph it is almost entirely efficiency. Reruns are bit-identical
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(stdev 0.00000 over five repeats), and both champions were audited clean
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of simulator exploits.
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</figcaption>
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<details class="tableview">
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<summary>Table view</summary>
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<div class="tw">
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<table class="data">
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<caption>Composite objective. Combined is the mean of the two synthetic held-out sets.</caption>
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<thead>
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<tr>
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<th>router</th>
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<th class="num">mainnet</th>
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<th class="num">hard sealed test</th>
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<th class="num">out-of-distribution</th>
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<th class="num">combined</th>
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</tr>
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</thead>
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<tbody>
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<tr>
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<td>lnd production stack<span class="sub">Dijkstra + mission control</span></td>
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<td class="num" data-l="mainnet">0.694</td><td class="num" data-l="hard sealed test">0.309</td>
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<td class="num" data-l="out-of-distribution">0.357</td><td class="num" data-l="combined">0.333</td>
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</tr>
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<tr>
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<td>hand-written seed<span class="sub">~300 lines, cheapest path + blacklist</span></td>
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<td class="num" data-l="mainnet">0.762</td><td class="num" data-l="hard sealed test">0.530</td>
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<td class="num" data-l="out-of-distribution">0.487</td><td class="num" data-l="combined">0.509</td>
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</tr>
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<tr>
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<td>hb1<span class="sub">evolved, 872 lines</span></td>
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<td class="num" data-l="mainnet">0.790</td><td class="num" data-l="hard sealed test">0.586</td>
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<td class="num" data-l="out-of-distribution">0.545</td><td class="num" data-l="combined">0.565</td>
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</tr>
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<tr class="best">
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<td>mx_c3<span class="sub">evolved, 1,525 lines</span></td>
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<td class="num" data-l="mainnet">0.791</td><td class="num" data-l="hard sealed test">0.583</td>
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<td class="num" data-l="out-of-distribution">0.581</td><td class="num" data-l="combined">0.582</td>
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</tr>
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</tbody>
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</table>
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</div>
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</details>
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</figure>
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<div class="prose">
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<p>
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The headline is not the size of the win, it is <em>where the win came
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from</em>. A 400-evaluation search over lnd's own pathfinding knobs — which
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probability estimator, how much a failed attempt should virtually cost, the
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floor on acceptable route probability — produced no setting that beat the
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shipped defaults on validation. The defaults are locally robust; the
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headroom is not in the knobs.
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</p>
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<p>
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Meanwhile a deliberately naive 300-line router with a <em>different
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paradigm</em> beat lnd's full production stack by 39% on the objective,
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winning or tying every example. Handing that seed to the optimizer, and
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letting it rewrite the whole algorithm rather than adjust its settings,
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produced routers that beat both. What they invented — liquidity intervals
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instead of decaying penalties — is the interesting part.
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</p>
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<p>
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<a class="link" href="findings.html">Read the full findings →</a>
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</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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</section>
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<!-- ================= 02 · METHOD ================= -->
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<section id="method">
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<div class="shell">
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<div class="sec-head">
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<div class="sec-no">02</div>
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<h2>How the search works</h2>
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<p class="sec-sub">
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A candidate is a whole routing algorithm in Go. Every proposal is
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compiled into a simulator and made to actually pay.
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</p>
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</div>
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<figure>
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<div class="fig-head">
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<span class="fig-t">One turn of the evolutionary loop</span>
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<span class="fig-n">Fig. 3</span>
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</div>
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<div class="schema">
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<svg viewBox="0 0 1000 252" role="img" aria-label="The GEPA loop: propose, compile, simulate, score, reflect, then back to propose.">
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<!-- stage boxes -->
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<g>
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<rect x="1" y="26" width="170" height="92" fill="#fbfaf6" stroke="#cbc4b2" stroke-width="1"/>
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<text class="s-num" x="14" y="46">01</text>
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<text class="s-title" x="14" y="66" font-size="14">propose</text>
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<text class="s-body" x="14" y="86">the reflection LM</text>
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<text class="s-body" x="14" y="102">rewrites the router</text>
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</g>
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<path d="M 179 72 h 20 m -6 -5 l 6 5 l -6 5" fill="none" stroke="#b3ab97" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<g>
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<rect x="207" y="26" width="170" height="92" fill="#fbfaf6" stroke="#cbc4b2" stroke-width="1"/>
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<text class="s-num" x="220" y="46">02</text>
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<text class="s-title" x="220" y="66" font-size="14">compile</text>
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<text class="s-body" x="220" y="86">go build −overlay drops</text>
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<text class="s-body" x="220" y="102">it into the simulator</text>
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</g>
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<path d="M 385 72 h 20 m -6 -5 l 6 5 l -6 5" fill="none" stroke="#b3ab97" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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||
<g>
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||
<rect x="413" y="26" width="170" height="92" fill="#fbfaf6" stroke="#cbc4b2" stroke-width="1"/>
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<text class="s-num" x="426" y="46">03</text>
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<text class="s-title" x="426" y="66" font-size="14">simulate</text>
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<text class="s-body" x="426" y="86">it pays, against hidden</text>
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<text class="s-body" x="426" y="102">channel liquidity</text>
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</g>
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<path d="M 591 72 h 20 m -6 -5 l 6 5 l -6 5" fill="none" stroke="#b3ab97" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<g>
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<rect x="619" y="26" width="170" height="92" fill="#fbfaf6" stroke="#cbc4b2" stroke-width="1"/>
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<text class="s-num" x="632" y="46">04</text>
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<text class="s-title" x="632" y="66" font-size="14">score</text>
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<text class="s-body" x="632" y="86">success, minus attempt</text>
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<text class="s-body" x="632" y="102">and fee penalties</text>
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</g>
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<path d="M 797 72 h 20 m -6 -5 l 6 5 l -6 5" fill="none" stroke="#b3ab97" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<g>
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||
<rect x="825" y="26" width="170" height="92" fill="#fbfaf6" stroke="#cbc4b2" stroke-width="1"/>
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<text class="s-num" x="838" y="46">05</text>
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<text class="s-title" x="838" y="66" font-size="14">reflect</text>
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<text class="s-body" x="838" y="86">keep it only if it holds</text>
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<text class="s-body" x="838" y="102">up across the splits</text>
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</g>
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<!-- feedback return path -->
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<path d="M 910 118 V 176 H 86 V 124 m -5 6 l 5 -6 l 5 6"
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fill="none" stroke="#a83f22" stroke-width="1.4"/>
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<text class="s-label-strong" x="498" y="199" text-anchor="middle" fill="#a83f22">
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per-attempt failure traces are the feedback
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</text>
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<text class="s-body" x="498" y="220" text-anchor="middle">
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which hop died, at what amount, with which BOLT error — so the next mutation is informed, not random
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</text>
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</svg>
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</div>
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<div class="scrollhint">scroll the diagram sideways →</div>
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<figcaption>
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The optimizer never sees hidden balances. A candidate gets the public
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gossip graph, its own channel balances, and the errors its attempts
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provoke — the same information a real Lightning sender has.
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</figcaption>
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</figure>
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<div class="prose">
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<h3>The simulator runs lnd's real code</h3>
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<p>
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<code>routing/sim_graph.go</code> is an in-memory Lightning network with
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hidden per-channel balances and per-direction policies: base and
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proportional fees, CLTV deltas, min and max HTLC. It implements lnd's own
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<code>Graph</code> interface, so lnd's production pathfinding and mission
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control run against it unmodified — which is what makes the baseline
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honest.
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</p>
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<p>
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Forwarding enforces real BOLT semantics. An attempt that asks too little
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fee gets <code>FeeInsufficient</code>; one that asks for more than a hop
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holds gets <code>TemporaryChannelFailure</code>, the liquidity miss that
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all of routing is really about. Balances move on success and unwind on
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failure. Topologies are synthetic (line, grid, hub-and-spoke, small-world,
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scale-free) or loaded from a mainnet <code>describegraph</code> snapshot,
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and hidden balances follow a half, uniform, or <em>bimodal</em> model — the
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last one hugging one end of each channel, which is both realistic and the
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hard case.
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</p>
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<p>
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It is fast enough to be an inner loop: ten payments on a 200-node network
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in about 0.3 seconds including process startup, so thousands of
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evaluations are cheap.
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</p>
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<h3>A candidate is an algorithm, not a config</h3>
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<p>
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The evolvable unit is a Go file behind a paradigm-free interface: gossip
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view, local balances, and per-attempt feedback in; a route out. GEPA
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rewrites that file, <code>go build -overlay</code> compiles the rewrite into
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the simulator, and the evaluator scores it on a corpus split into train,
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validation and sealed test. Nothing in the contract mentions Dijkstra,
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mission control, or probability estimators. Those become background
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knowledge the reflection prompt may draw on, keep, reshape, or discard.
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</p>
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<div class="note">
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<h4>the sandbox held</h4>
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<p>
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An independent audit found that the graph session handed candidates the
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concrete simulator graph, type-assertable back into a read of hidden
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balances or an outright rewrite of ground-truth liquidity — a
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perfect-score reward hack using no banned identifiers. It was sealed the
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same day, and every in-flight candidate was checked against it: zero
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hits. No result on this site was produced through that hole.
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</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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</section>
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<!-- ================= 03 · CORPUS ================= -->
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<section id="corpus">
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<div class="shell">
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<div class="sec-head">
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<div class="sec-no">03</div>
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<h2>The scenarios it is scored against</h2>
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<p class="sec-sub">
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<span class="mono" id="c-files">—</span> scenario files,
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<span class="mono" id="c-scen">—</span> payments,
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split <span class="mono" id="c-split">—</span>. Validation picks the
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incumbent; the test split stays sealed until a champion is declared.
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</p>
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</div>
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<div class="figgrid">
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<figure>
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<div class="fig-head">
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<span class="fig-t">Topology</span>
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<span class="fig-n">files</span>
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</div>
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<div class="bars" id="bars-topology"></div>
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</figure>
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<figure>
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<div class="fig-head">
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<span class="fig-t">Hidden liquidity model</span>
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<span class="fig-n">files</span>
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</div>
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<div class="bars" id="bars-liquidity"></div>
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<figcaption>
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Bimodal is the hard regime: funds parked at one end of each channel,
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so capacity tells you almost nothing about what will actually pass.
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</figcaption>
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</figure>
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<figure>
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<div class="fig-head">
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<span class="fig-t">Payment amount</span>
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<span class="fig-n">scenarios, satoshis</span>
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</div>
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<div class="bars" id="bars-amount"></div>
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</figure>
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<figure>
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<div class="fig-head">
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<span class="fig-t">Shard budget</span>
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<span class="fig-n">scenarios, max parts</span>
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</div>
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<div class="bars" id="bars-parts"></div>
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</figure>
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</div>
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</div>
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</section>
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<!-- ================= 04 · LIVE RUN ================= -->
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<section id="run">
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<div class="shell">
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<div class="sec-head">
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||
<div class="sec-no">04</div>
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||
<h2>The run behind the drift verdict</h2>
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<p class="sec-sub">
|
||
Telemetry from the optimizer, exported straight out of the GEPA run
|
||
directory. <span class="mono">code_drift1</span> has since finished all 400
|
||
evaluations; exp-010's <span class="mono">code_split1</span> takes this slot
|
||
next.
|
||
</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
<div class="runbar">
|
||
<span><span class="dot"></span>run <b id="rb-run">—</b></span>
|
||
<span>reflection <b id="rb-lm">—</b></span>
|
||
<span>mode <b id="rb-mode">—</b></span>
|
||
<span>budget <b>400 evals</b></span>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
<div class="statline wide" id="run-stats"></div>
|
||
|
||
<div class="prose" style="margin-bottom:34px">
|
||
<p>
|
||
<code>code_drift1</code> was the first run in a moving world. Its
|
||
predecessor, <code>code_gen2</code>, showed that more evaluations of a
|
||
static environment buy nothing — three independently bred routers landed
|
||
inside a band 0.014 wide (the
|
||
<a class="link" href="findings.html#ceiling">paradigm ceiling</a>). So this
|
||
run changed the environment instead of the budget: a virtual clock and
|
||
background senders moving hidden liquidity between our payments, and the
|
||
question of whether time-awareness re-evolves once knowledge genuinely goes
|
||
stale. <strong>It did — and it still lost.</strong> The winner stamps every
|
||
belief and halves its confidence every 35 virtual minutes, and the time-less
|
||
champions beat it on all four held-out tiers, drift included. The mechanism,
|
||
the numbers and the caveats are on the
|
||
<a class="link" href="drift.html">drift page</a>.
|
||
</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
<figure class="wide" style="margin-top:0">
|
||
<div class="fig-head">
|
||
<span class="fig-t">Score over iterations</span>
|
||
<span class="fig-n">Fig. 4 · minibatch objective</span>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="plot" id="score-chart"></div>
|
||
<div class="scrollhint">scroll the chart sideways →</div>
|
||
<div class="legend">
|
||
<span class="item"><i class="line" style="background:#a83f22"></i> best kept</span>
|
||
<span class="item"><i class="line" style="background:#2f6ea8"></i> proposed</span>
|
||
<span class="item"><i class="dash"></i> seed baseline</span>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<figcaption>
|
||
These are per-minibatch scores on the training split, not held-out
|
||
numbers — they are how GEPA decides what to keep, and they run
|
||
optimistically high. Every comparison in section 01 comes from separate
|
||
held-out runs instead.
|
||
</figcaption>
|
||
</figure>
|
||
|
||
<figure class="wide">
|
||
<div class="fig-head">
|
||
<span class="fig-t">Candidate lineage</span>
|
||
<span class="fig-n">Fig. 5 · select a candidate</span>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="plot dag" id="lineage-dag"></div>
|
||
<figcaption>
|
||
Each node is one compiled, scored router. Accepted candidates stay on the
|
||
frontier and can be mutated further; rejects are dead ends. The scores are
|
||
per-minibatch and each is measured on a different subset, so a rejected
|
||
candidate can carry a higher number than the incumbent without being
|
||
better.
|
||
</figcaption>
|
||
</figure>
|
||
|
||
<div class="panels">
|
||
<div class="panel">
|
||
<div class="fig-head">
|
||
<span class="fig-t">Candidate detail</span>
|
||
<span class="fig-n" id="detail-sub">—</span>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div id="cand-detail"></div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="panel">
|
||
<div class="fig-head">
|
||
<span class="fig-t">What the mutation changed</span>
|
||
<span class="fig-n">line diff</span>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="selects">
|
||
<label>base <select id="diff-a"></select></label>
|
||
<span>→</span>
|
||
<label>candidate <select id="diff-b"></select></label>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<pre class="diff" id="diff-view"></pre>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</section>
|
||
|
||
<div class="shell">
|
||
<div class="readnext">
|
||
<div class="k">read next</div>
|
||
<a class="big" href="findings.html">Findings: what the evolved routers kept, dropped, and invented</a>
|
||
<p>
|
||
The definitive write-up — the paradigm result, the champion scores, an
|
||
anatomy of the evolved algorithms against lnd's, the ceiling three separate
|
||
lineages ran into, and the process lessons from eleven experiments.
|
||
</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
</main>
|
||
|
||
<div class="shell">
|
||
<footer class="site-footer">
|
||
<span>lnd × GEPA — Lightning routing evolution</span>
|
||
<span id="foot-run">run data loading…</span>
|
||
</footer>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
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|
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</body>
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