lnd/simulation/lab/experiments
Olaoluwa Osuntokun 2096b9737a simulation/lab: exp-022 verdict, robustness bought with unbounded retries
In this commit, we close exp-022 with the pre-registered sweep: 648
paired runs, gates exact to four decimals against exp-020 and
exp-019. deg1 is challenger failure number eight — zero CI-solid
wins over the champions in either channel condition, unanimous
losses on split and mainnet, and the first evolved router to land
below production lnd on the mainnet tier. What it was bred for it
achieved: the flattest degradation profile ever measured, with the
champion gap narrowing under the lying channel exactly as predicted.
The mechanism is the finding — it never stops, and the objective's
attempt cap made never stopping free. The cap-sensitivity re-scoring
turns that subsidy into a measured objective weakness, and the
plan-time thesis takes its third independent confirmation.
2026-07-27 18:51:20 -07:00
..
exp-001-param-smoke.md simulation: add evolved router champions and lab notebook 2026-07-24 13:01:06 -07:00
exp-002-param-run1.md simulation: add evolved router champions and lab notebook 2026-07-24 13:01:06 -07:00
exp-002b-bimodal-knob.md simulation/lab: turn the knob WHY.md said we never turned 2026-07-26 13:55:48 -07:00
exp-003-seed-router-vs-lnd.md simulation: add evolved router champions and lab notebook 2026-07-24 13:01:06 -07:00
exp-004-code-evolution.md simulation: add evolved router champions and lab notebook 2026-07-24 13:01:06 -07:00
exp-004-sim-audit.md simulation: add evolved router champions and lab notebook 2026-07-24 13:01:06 -07:00
exp-005-sim-audit.md simulation: add evolved router champions and lab notebook 2026-07-24 13:01:06 -07:00
exp-006-breakthrough.md simulation/lab: correct the record on the bimodal prior 2026-07-26 02:33:34 -07:00
exp-007-mix-followup.md simulation: add evolved router champions and lab notebook 2026-07-24 13:01:06 -07:00
exp-008-drift-evolution.md simulation/lab: close exp-008 -- time-awareness re-evolves, loses anyway 2026-07-24 20:08:33 -07:00
exp-008-drift1-best-candidate.go simulation/lab: close exp-008 -- time-awareness re-evolves, loses anyway 2026-07-24 20:08:33 -07:00
exp-008-drift1-best-candidate.md simulation: document the drift1 winner, resolve exp-008 in the docs 2026-07-24 20:26:46 -07:00
exp-009-mainnet-validation.md simulation/lab: add mainnet-graph validation results 2026-07-24 13:24:22 -07:00
exp-010-opus1-best-candidate.go simulation/lab: close exp-010 with the Opus 5 reflection A/B verdict 2026-07-25 17:07:02 -07:00
exp-010-opus1-best-candidate.md simulation/lab: document the exp-010 challenger routers 2026-07-25 18:01:15 -07:00
exp-010-opusmed1-best-candidate.go simulation/lab: close exp-010 with the Opus 5 reflection A/B verdict 2026-07-25 17:07:02 -07:00
exp-010-opusmed1-best-candidate.md simulation/lab: document the exp-010 challenger routers 2026-07-25 18:01:15 -07:00
exp-010-split2-best-candidate.go simulation/lab: record the exp-010 codex-arm verdict 2026-07-25 03:11:51 -07:00
exp-010-splitting-pressure.md simulation/lab: correct the exp-010 collapse attribution 2026-07-25 18:02:28 -07:00
exp-010b-atomic-splitting.md simulation/lab: close exp-010b -- the champion survives its honest arena 2026-07-26 01:03:37 -07:00
exp-010b-atomic1-best-candidate.go simulation/lab: close exp-010b -- the champion survives its honest arena 2026-07-26 01:03:37 -07:00
exp-010b-atomic1-best-candidate.md simulation/lab: document the exp-010b challenger routers 2026-07-26 02:04:23 -07:00
exp-010b-atomicopus1-best-candidate.go simulation/lab: record the exp-010b Opus-arm verdict 2026-07-25 20:03:04 -07:00
exp-010b-atomicopus1-best-candidate.md simulation/lab: document the exp-010b challenger routers 2026-07-26 02:04:23 -07:00
exp-011-code-gen2.md simulation/lab: retract exp-016's mechanism, three guesses deep 2026-07-26 23:44:36 -07:00
exp-011-gen2-best-candidate.go simulation/lab: add exp-011, the code_gen2 insight-transfer run 2026-07-24 16:37:25 -07:00
exp-012-cold-cache.md simulation: reconcile the stale stubs the docs pass found 2026-07-26 14:41:37 -07:00
exp-013-hybrid-continuation.md simulation/lab: exp-013, the give-up attractor 2026-07-26 18:55:53 -07:00
exp-013-hybrid1-best-candidate.go simulation/lab: exp-013, the give-up attractor 2026-07-26 18:55:53 -07:00
exp-013-hybrid1-validation.json simulation/lab: exp-013, the give-up attractor 2026-07-26 18:55:53 -07:00
exp-014-traffic-engine.md simulation/lab: write up exp-014, the traffic engine fix 2026-07-26 19:20:52 -07:00
exp-015-churn-ladder.json simulation/lab: exp-015, exp-008 called a tie a loss 2026-07-26 19:58:09 -07:00
exp-015-churn-ladder.md simulation/lab: kill the hb1-churn hypothesis at n=40 2026-07-26 22:42:13 -07:00
exp-015-hb1-churn-n40.json simulation/lab: kill the hb1-churn hypothesis at n=40 2026-07-26 22:42:13 -07:00
exp-016-atomic1-importer.go simulation/lab: exp-016, free knowledge helps the champions and hurts lnd 2026-07-26 23:06:50 -07:00
exp-016-mxc3-importer.go simulation/lab: exp-016, free knowledge helps the champions and hurts lnd 2026-07-26 23:06:50 -07:00
exp-016-served-weights.json simulation/lab: exp-016, free knowledge helps the champions and hurts lnd 2026-07-26 23:06:50 -07:00
exp-016-served-weights.md simulation/lab: retract exp-016's mechanism, three guesses deep 2026-07-26 23:44:36 -07:00
exp-017-generator-families.md simulation/lab: exp-017, rank is monotone, the margin is not 2026-07-27 00:30:15 -07:00
exp-017-results-summary.json simulation/lab: exp-017, the paradigm survives de-circularization 2026-07-27 00:21:54 -07:00
exp-018-adjudication.json simulation/lab: exp-018, the band is not a gepa artifact 2026-07-27 10:57:50 -07:00
exp-018-omni-adjudication.md simulation/lab: exp-018, the band is not a gepa artifact 2026-07-27 10:57:50 -07:00
exp-018-omni1-best-candidate.go simulation/lab: exp-018, the band is not a gepa artifact 2026-07-27 10:57:50 -07:00
exp-018-validation-summary.json simulation/lab: exp-018, the band is not a gepa artifact 2026-07-27 10:57:50 -07:00
exp-019-degraded-attribution.md simulation/lab: exp-019b bounds the anomaly and kills its story 2026-07-27 01:48:10 -07:00
exp-019-results-summary.json simulation/lab: exp-019, the 8.6x dies and the margin survives 2026-07-27 01:05:53 -07:00
exp-019b-results-summary.json simulation/lab: exp-019b bounds the anomaly and kills its story 2026-07-27 01:48:10 -07:00
exp-020-adjudication-summary.json simulation/lab: exp-020, mx_c3 defends the championship 2026-07-27 00:53:17 -07:00
exp-020-championship-adjudication.md simulation/lab: exp-020, mx_c3 defends the championship 2026-07-27 00:53:17 -07:00
exp-021-distillation-patch.md command-center: publish exp-021, the fix and the null (v62) 2026-07-27 12:16:22 -07:00
exp-021-results-summary.json simulation/lab: exp-021, one fix lands and one theory dies 2026-07-27 11:58:17 -07:00
exp-022-breed-under-degradation.md simulation/lab: exp-022 verdict, robustness bought with unbounded retries 2026-07-27 18:51:20 -07:00
exp-022-deg1-best-candidate.go simulation/lab: exp-022 harvest, the first breed under a lying channel 2026-07-27 17:44:24 -07:00
exp-022-deg1-run.log.gz simulation/lab: exp-022 harvest, the first breed under a lying channel 2026-07-27 17:44:24 -07:00
exp-022-deg1-summary.json simulation/lab: exp-022 harvest, the first breed under a lying channel 2026-07-27 17:44:24 -07:00
exp-022-results-summary.json simulation/lab: exp-022 verdict, robustness bought with unbounded retries 2026-07-27 18:51:20 -07:00
exp-023-econ-realism-design.md simulation/lab: exp-023 design spec, economic realism in five stages 2026-07-27 13:59:24 -07:00
exp-024-ceiling-arm.md simulation/lab: exp-024, the ceiling arm converges below the band 2026-07-27 16:30:12 -07:00
exp-024-ceiling1-adjudication.json simulation/lab: exp-024, the ceiling arm converges below the band 2026-07-27 16:30:12 -07:00
exp-024-ceiling1-best-candidate.go simulation/lab: exp-024, the ceiling arm converges below the band 2026-07-27 16:30:12 -07:00
exp-024-ceiling1-run.log.gz simulation/lab: exp-024, the ceiling arm converges below the band 2026-07-27 16:30:12 -07:00