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In this commit, we write up the degraded-attribution ladder. The feared result did not happen: the champions are not calibrated to the perfect channel, because none of them writes a liquidity bound from an unattributed failure, and at the realistic mix every champion still clears lnd on every tier. What collapses is lnd itself — its unknown-failure handling penalizes the whole route in both directions, so a 10% unreadable-error rate drives its give-up rate from 0.31 to 0.71, and at 30% four of ten hard files pin to zero success. That is a self-contained upstream finding, and the third input to the distillation patch. The headline consequence: the 8.6x attempt-reduction framing is retired. Under degradation lnd uses fewer attempts than the champions because it stops paying for hard payments, so the ratio is meaningless in both directions. The durable claim is on degraded mainnet, where the champions hold success at exactly their undegraded values while lnd trades six points of success for its attempt drop: the edge converts from attempts into success. The shift-helps-lnd anomaly ships labelled as an anomaly with its mechanism unproven, and the delay arm shows staleness of delivery is free for everyone: misattribution is the binding constraint. |
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| .. | ||
| exp-001-param-smoke.md | ||
| exp-002-param-run1.md | ||
| exp-002b-bimodal-knob.md | ||
| exp-003-seed-router-vs-lnd.md | ||
| exp-004-code-evolution.md | ||
| exp-004-sim-audit.md | ||
| exp-005-sim-audit.md | ||
| exp-006-breakthrough.md | ||
| exp-007-mix-followup.md | ||
| exp-008-drift-evolution.md | ||
| exp-008-drift1-best-candidate.go | ||
| exp-008-drift1-best-candidate.md | ||
| exp-009-mainnet-validation.md | ||
| exp-010-opus1-best-candidate.go | ||
| exp-010-opus1-best-candidate.md | ||
| exp-010-opusmed1-best-candidate.go | ||
| exp-010-opusmed1-best-candidate.md | ||
| exp-010-split2-best-candidate.go | ||
| exp-010-splitting-pressure.md | ||
| exp-010b-atomic-splitting.md | ||
| exp-010b-atomic1-best-candidate.go | ||
| exp-010b-atomic1-best-candidate.md | ||
| exp-010b-atomicopus1-best-candidate.go | ||
| exp-010b-atomicopus1-best-candidate.md | ||
| exp-011-code-gen2.md | ||
| exp-011-gen2-best-candidate.go | ||
| exp-012-cold-cache.md | ||
| exp-013-hybrid-continuation.md | ||
| exp-013-hybrid1-best-candidate.go | ||
| exp-013-hybrid1-validation.json | ||
| exp-014-traffic-engine.md | ||
| exp-015-churn-ladder.json | ||
| exp-015-churn-ladder.md | ||
| exp-015-hb1-churn-n40.json | ||
| exp-016-atomic1-importer.go | ||
| exp-016-mxc3-importer.go | ||
| exp-016-served-weights.json | ||
| exp-016-served-weights.md | ||
| exp-017-generator-families.md | ||
| exp-017-results-summary.json | ||
| exp-019-degraded-attribution.md | ||
| exp-019-results-summary.json | ||
| exp-020-adjudication-summary.json | ||
| exp-020-championship-adjudication.md | ||