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In this commit, we write up the degraded-attribution ladder. The feared result did not happen: the champions are not calibrated to the perfect channel, because none of them writes a liquidity bound from an unattributed failure, and at the realistic mix every champion still clears lnd on every tier. What collapses is lnd itself — its unknown-failure handling penalizes the whole route in both directions, so a 10% unreadable-error rate drives its give-up rate from 0.31 to 0.71, and at 30% four of ten hard files pin to zero success. That is a self-contained upstream finding, and the third input to the distillation patch. The headline consequence: the 8.6x attempt-reduction framing is retired. Under degradation lnd uses fewer attempts than the champions because it stops paying for hard payments, so the ratio is meaningless in both directions. The durable claim is on degraded mainnet, where the champions hold success at exactly their undegraded values while lnd trades six points of success for its attempt drop: the edge converts from attempts into success. The shift-helps-lnd anomaly ships labelled as an anomaly with its mechanism unproven, and the delay arm shows staleness of delivery is free for everyone: misattribution is the binding constraint. |
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|---|---|---|
| .. | ||
| champions | ||
| command-center | ||
| lab | ||
| .gitignore | ||
| claude_lm.py | ||
| codex_lm.py | ||
| evaluate.py | ||
| evaluate_code.py | ||
| export_run.py | ||
| gen_family_corpora.py | ||
| gen_mainnet_scenarios.py | ||
| gen_mainnet_variants.py | ||
| gen_scenarios.py | ||
| gen_served_weights.py | ||
| gen_warmup_scenarios.py | ||
| params_lnd_bimodal.json | ||
| params_lnd_no_contagion.json | ||
| preflight.py | ||
| README.md | ||
| refresh_dashboard.sh | ||
| run_gepa.py | ||
| run_gepa_code.py | ||
| run_gepa_omni.py | ||
| sweep_validate.py | ||
| warmup_curve.py | ||
Routing Optimization Harness
This directory holds the GEPA-based optimization harness for lnd's pathfinding. The core idea: lnd's real routing code (or a candidate replacement algorithm) runs against an in-process simulated Lightning Network with hidden liquidity, an evaluator scores the outcome, and a reflective LLM optimizer (GEPA) proposes improved candidates from the failure feedback.
Components
| Piece | Where | What |
|---|---|---|
| Simulator | routing/sim_*.go |
In-memory LN with hidden balances; real pathfinding + mission control run unmodified against it |
| CLI | cmd/routesim |
params JSON + scenario file in, attempt traces + aggregate JSON out |
| Candidate slot | cmd/routesim/candidate_impl.go |
A complete routing algorithm behind --router=candidate; swapped per candidate via go build -overlay |
| Corpus | gen_scenarios.py |
train/val/test scenario files: topology + liquidity seed + payment batch |
| Evaluators | evaluate.py, evaluate_code.py |
score = success rate − small saturating penalties for attempts and fee ppm |
| Runners | run_gepa.py, run_gepa_code.py |
parameter mode and code mode optimization |
| Reflection LM | codex_lm.py |
GEPA LM protocol via codex exec headless (default gpt-5.6-sol) |
| Lab notebook | lab/ |
running log of experiments, results, ideas |
Quick start
# Build the simulator binary.
go build -o /tmp/routesim ./cmd/routesim
# Generate a scenario corpus.
python3 simulation/gen_scenarios.py --out /tmp/corpus
# Score the lnd defaults on one example.
cd simulation && ROUTESIM_BIN=/tmp/routesim python3 evaluate.py /tmp/corpus/val/example_000.json
# Compare lnd stack vs the candidate router on a scenario file.
/tmp/routesim --scenarios /tmp/corpus/val/example_000.json --router=lnd --traces=false
/tmp/routesim --scenarios /tmp/corpus/val/example_000.json --router=candidate --traces=false
# Full optimization runs. gepa must be installed from git main — a
# durable clone lives at ~/codez/gepa; prefer uv for the env:
# uv venv /tmp/gepa-venv && uv pip install -p /tmp/gepa-venv \
# "~/codez/gepa[full]"
# Also needs the codex CLI authenticated and OPENAI_API_KEY set.
ROUTESIM_BIN=/tmp/routesim python3 run_gepa.py --corpus /tmp/corpus --name run1 --max-evals 400
ROUTESIM_BIN=/tmp/routesim python3 run_gepa_code.py --corpus /tmp/corpus --name code1
The two optimization modes
- Parameter mode (
run_gepa.py) — candidate = JSON of the existing heuristic's knobs (estimator choice, apriori/bimodal params, attempt cost, min probability). Validates the loop and tunes the current paradigm. - Code mode (
run_gepa_code.py) — candidate = the full Go source ofcandidate_impl.go, an entire routing algorithm implementing therouting.SimRouterinterface. This is the paradigm-free path: the candidate sees only gossip, its own balances, and per-attempt feedback. Compile errors are returned to the proposer as feedback.
Anti-reward-hacking measures
- Candidate routers receive a
SimNetworkViewwrapper, not the concrete graph, so hidden balances and liquidity mutation are unreachable. evaluate_code.pyrejects candidates usingunsafe,reflect,os/exec, network packages, etc.- Selection happens on a val split; a sealed test split is only used for final reporting.
- The source's own channels are rebalanced 50/50 before each batch so scores measure routing skill, not sender funding luck.
Command center
command-center/ holds a static dashboard site (serve with
python3 -m http.server from that directory).