lnd/simulation/command-center
Olaoluwa Osuntokun 5a4e256998 command-center: add the exp-010b atomic-arena verdict to findings
In this commit, we write up exp-010b on the findings page as a new
section 07, "The honest arena: atomic commitment, and the fifth
challenge", with the process and timeline sections renumbered to 08 and
09 behind it.

The section tells the arena story first: shards that hold liquidity
until the whole payment settles, siblings contending for what is held,
and background traffic drifting on every attempt boundary, so a long
reactive ladder finally pays for the churn it sits through. Flag-off
byte-identity means none of the earlier results on the page moved.

The headline is the baseline, which reordered the field before evolution
ran at all: lnd falls from second place to last, spending 105 attempts
per payment where it spent 23 with instant settlement, and exp-010's
persistent-plan router pulls statistically even with mx_c3 on both
atomic tiers without ever having seen an atomic shard. Two tables carry
the numbers, the seven-router baseline and the six-tier paired sweep
with sign-test deltas against the champion.

Then the verdicts. mx_c3 survives its fifth direct challenge on an arena
built expressly against its evidence ladder, but the shape of the
frontier changed: the codex arm's hybrid of cross-payment memory and
reservation-ledger planning is the first challenger in the program with
no collapse tier, and it routes mainnet payments in 1.6 attempts, the
lowest figure we have measured. The Opus arm lost outright, its
drift-bred bound relaxation burning 57 attempts per payment, which flips
the exp-010 proposer A/B and adds the clause that proposer strength
interacts with environment variance.

We also close the forward pointers. The exp-010 sidenote now says how
its designed follow-up turned out, the drift page's "one drift
intensity" caveat gets the attempt-boundary answer, and the index byline
and live-run panel move to exp-010b closed with exp-012 next.
2026-07-26 01:09:37 -07:00
..
data command-center: export the opus1 lineage for the exp-010 verdict publish 2026-07-25 17:16:55 -07:00
app.js simulation/command-center: resolve the drift page's verdict 2026-07-24 21:08:24 -07:00
drift.html command-center: add the exp-010b atomic-arena verdict to findings 2026-07-26 01:09:37 -07:00
findings.html command-center: add the exp-010b atomic-arena verdict to findings 2026-07-26 01:09:37 -07:00
index.html command-center: add the exp-010b atomic-arena verdict to findings 2026-07-26 01:09:37 -07:00
style.css simulation/command-center: resolve the drift page's verdict 2026-07-24 21:08:24 -07:00