lnd/simulation
Olaoluwa Osuntokun 388fc426b9 simulation: add the exp-017 family corpus tooling
In this commit, we give the corpus generator the two knobs exp-017
sweeps over. gen_scenarios.py grows --liquidity-family (override the
emitted liquidity_model string verbatim) and --amount-family
(lognormal with the median pinned to the tiered amount, or amounts
snapped to a round-value ladder so they collide with each other and
with liquidity bounds, the way real payments do). The default path
makes exactly the original rng draws in the original order, verified
byte-identical across six invocation shapes against the pre-change
script.

gen_family_corpora.py emits the exp-017 layout: ten hard-tier base
scenarios drawn once from a fixed master seed, then one directory per
family where file i is identical to the base except the single field
under test. That pairing property is what lets per-file paired deltas
isolate the generator from topology noise. gen_mainnet_variants.py
does the same transform to existing mainnet scenario files as a
one-line text substitution, with a parse-and-compare assertion that
nothing else moved.
2026-07-27 00:07:17 -07:00
..
champions simulation: reconcile the stale stubs the docs pass found 2026-07-26 14:41:37 -07:00
command-center simulation/lab: retract exp-016's mechanism, three guesses deep 2026-07-26 23:44:36 -07:00
lab simulation/lab: retract exp-016's mechanism, three guesses deep 2026-07-26 23:44:36 -07:00
.gitignore simulation: add GEPA optimization harness 2026-07-24 13:01:06 -07:00
claude_lm.py simulation: isolate claude -p reflections from user-level hooks 2026-07-25 13:01:36 -07:00
codex_lm.py simulation: fix CodexLM's grandchild-pipe hang and record the staleness null 2026-07-26 13:06:29 -07:00
evaluate.py simulation: add GEPA optimization harness 2026-07-24 13:01:06 -07:00
evaluate_code.py simulation: teach the harness the atomic-MPP arena rules 2026-07-25 17:40:23 -07:00
export_run.py simulation: add GEPA optimization harness 2026-07-24 13:01:06 -07:00
gen_family_corpora.py simulation: add the exp-017 family corpus tooling 2026-07-27 00:07:17 -07:00
gen_mainnet_scenarios.py simulation: adopt advisor corrections to measurement and validation 2026-07-25 02:58:52 -07:00
gen_mainnet_variants.py simulation: add the exp-017 family corpus tooling 2026-07-27 00:07:17 -07:00
gen_scenarios.py simulation: add the exp-017 family corpus tooling 2026-07-27 00:07:17 -07:00
gen_served_weights.py simulation/lab: exp-016, free knowledge helps the champions and hurts lnd 2026-07-26 23:06:50 -07:00
gen_warmup_scenarios.py routing+routesim: separate what a warmup teaches from what it spends 2026-07-26 02:38:57 -07:00
params_lnd_bimodal.json simulation: reconcile the stale stubs the docs pass found 2026-07-26 14:41:37 -07:00
params_lnd_no_contagion.json simulation/lab: retract exp-016's mechanism, three guesses deep 2026-07-26 23:44:36 -07:00
preflight.py simulation: add GEPA optimization harness 2026-07-24 13:01:06 -07:00
README.md simulation: point README at durable gepa clone and uv 2026-07-24 13:04:18 -07:00
refresh_dashboard.sh simulation/command-center: add paradigm-ceiling section and drift page 2026-07-24 17:31:33 -07:00
run_gepa.py simulation: add GEPA optimization harness 2026-07-24 13:01:06 -07:00
run_gepa_code.py simulation/lab: exp-015, exp-008 called a tie a loss 2026-07-26 19:58:09 -07:00
run_gepa_omni.py simulation: add GEPA optimization harness 2026-07-24 13:01:06 -07:00
sweep_validate.py simulation/lab: turn the knob WHY.md said we never turned 2026-07-26 13:55:48 -07:00
warmup_curve.py simulation: add the warmup-curve tool and the scope-vs-clock note 2026-07-26 02:11:12 -07:00

Routing Optimization Harness

This directory holds the GEPA-based optimization harness for lnd's pathfinding. The core idea: lnd's real routing code (or a candidate replacement algorithm) runs against an in-process simulated Lightning Network with hidden liquidity, an evaluator scores the outcome, and a reflective LLM optimizer (GEPA) proposes improved candidates from the failure feedback.

Components

Piece Where What
Simulator routing/sim_*.go In-memory LN with hidden balances; real pathfinding + mission control run unmodified against it
CLI cmd/routesim params JSON + scenario file in, attempt traces + aggregate JSON out
Candidate slot cmd/routesim/candidate_impl.go A complete routing algorithm behind --router=candidate; swapped per candidate via go build -overlay
Corpus gen_scenarios.py train/val/test scenario files: topology + liquidity seed + payment batch
Evaluators evaluate.py, evaluate_code.py score = success rate small saturating penalties for attempts and fee ppm
Runners run_gepa.py, run_gepa_code.py parameter mode and code mode optimization
Reflection LM codex_lm.py GEPA LM protocol via codex exec headless (default gpt-5.6-sol)
Lab notebook lab/ running log of experiments, results, ideas

Quick start

# Build the simulator binary.
go build -o /tmp/routesim ./cmd/routesim

# Generate a scenario corpus.
python3 simulation/gen_scenarios.py --out /tmp/corpus

# Score the lnd defaults on one example.
cd simulation && ROUTESIM_BIN=/tmp/routesim python3 evaluate.py /tmp/corpus/val/example_000.json

# Compare lnd stack vs the candidate router on a scenario file.
/tmp/routesim --scenarios /tmp/corpus/val/example_000.json --router=lnd    --traces=false
/tmp/routesim --scenarios /tmp/corpus/val/example_000.json --router=candidate --traces=false

# Full optimization runs. gepa must be installed from git main — a
# durable clone lives at ~/codez/gepa; prefer uv for the env:
#   uv venv /tmp/gepa-venv && uv pip install -p /tmp/gepa-venv \
#       "~/codez/gepa[full]"
# Also needs the codex CLI authenticated and OPENAI_API_KEY set.
ROUTESIM_BIN=/tmp/routesim python3 run_gepa.py --corpus /tmp/corpus --name run1 --max-evals 400
ROUTESIM_BIN=/tmp/routesim python3 run_gepa_code.py --corpus /tmp/corpus --name code1

The two optimization modes

  1. Parameter mode (run_gepa.py) — candidate = JSON of the existing heuristic's knobs (estimator choice, apriori/bimodal params, attempt cost, min probability). Validates the loop and tunes the current paradigm.
  2. Code mode (run_gepa_code.py) — candidate = the full Go source of candidate_impl.go, an entire routing algorithm implementing the routing.SimRouter interface. This is the paradigm-free path: the candidate sees only gossip, its own balances, and per-attempt feedback. Compile errors are returned to the proposer as feedback.

Anti-reward-hacking measures

  • Candidate routers receive a SimNetworkView wrapper, not the concrete graph, so hidden balances and liquidity mutation are unreachable.
  • evaluate_code.py rejects candidates using unsafe, reflect, os/exec, network packages, etc.
  • Selection happens on a val split; a sealed test split is only used for final reporting.
  • The source's own channels are rebalanced 50/50 before each batch so scores measure routing skill, not sender funding luck.

Command center

command-center/ holds a static dashboard site (serve with python3 -m http.server from that directory).