lnd/simulation/lab/experiments
Olaoluwa Osuntokun 83f99803ae simulation/lab: turn the knob WHY.md said we never turned
In this commit, we close the last hole in the exp-002 claim. That
writeup concluded parameter tuning cannot beat lnd's defaults, but it
never evaluated the configuration that would make lnd's own machinery
match this environment: its bimodal estimator with scale_msat near five
percent of a typical channel, which is what our liquidity generator
draws. The sweep tool learned to pass a params file, and seven scales
bracketing the matched value ran against lnd's shipping apriori default
and the champion.

The claim survives on both sealed tiers, and the way bimodal fails is
the useful part. It raises success while more than doubling attempts,
because a better liquidity prior makes lnd more willing to keep trying
without changing what it retries: findPath takes the amount as a fixed
argument, so any estimator still retries the same amount over a
different route, where the champions read their upper-fail bound and
retry a different amount. The estimator is worth two hundredths of
objective and the paradigm is worth two tenths.
2026-07-26 13:55:48 -07:00
..
exp-001-param-smoke.md simulation: add evolved router champions and lab notebook 2026-07-24 13:01:06 -07:00
exp-002-param-run1.md simulation: add evolved router champions and lab notebook 2026-07-24 13:01:06 -07:00
exp-002b-bimodal-knob.md simulation/lab: turn the knob WHY.md said we never turned 2026-07-26 13:55:48 -07:00
exp-003-seed-router-vs-lnd.md simulation: add evolved router champions and lab notebook 2026-07-24 13:01:06 -07:00
exp-004-code-evolution.md simulation: add evolved router champions and lab notebook 2026-07-24 13:01:06 -07:00
exp-004-sim-audit.md simulation: add evolved router champions and lab notebook 2026-07-24 13:01:06 -07:00
exp-005-sim-audit.md simulation: add evolved router champions and lab notebook 2026-07-24 13:01:06 -07:00
exp-006-breakthrough.md simulation/lab: correct the record on the bimodal prior 2026-07-26 02:33:34 -07:00
exp-007-mix-followup.md simulation: add evolved router champions and lab notebook 2026-07-24 13:01:06 -07:00
exp-008-drift-evolution.md simulation/lab: close exp-008 -- time-awareness re-evolves, loses anyway 2026-07-24 20:08:33 -07:00
exp-008-drift1-best-candidate.go simulation/lab: close exp-008 -- time-awareness re-evolves, loses anyway 2026-07-24 20:08:33 -07:00
exp-008-drift1-best-candidate.md simulation: document the drift1 winner, resolve exp-008 in the docs 2026-07-24 20:26:46 -07:00
exp-009-mainnet-validation.md simulation/lab: add mainnet-graph validation results 2026-07-24 13:24:22 -07:00
exp-010-opus1-best-candidate.go simulation/lab: close exp-010 with the Opus 5 reflection A/B verdict 2026-07-25 17:07:02 -07:00
exp-010-opus1-best-candidate.md simulation/lab: document the exp-010 challenger routers 2026-07-25 18:01:15 -07:00
exp-010-opusmed1-best-candidate.go simulation/lab: close exp-010 with the Opus 5 reflection A/B verdict 2026-07-25 17:07:02 -07:00
exp-010-opusmed1-best-candidate.md simulation/lab: document the exp-010 challenger routers 2026-07-25 18:01:15 -07:00
exp-010-split2-best-candidate.go simulation/lab: record the exp-010 codex-arm verdict 2026-07-25 03:11:51 -07:00
exp-010-splitting-pressure.md simulation/lab: correct the exp-010 collapse attribution 2026-07-25 18:02:28 -07:00
exp-010b-atomic-splitting.md simulation/lab: close exp-010b -- the champion survives its honest arena 2026-07-26 01:03:37 -07:00
exp-010b-atomic1-best-candidate.go simulation/lab: close exp-010b -- the champion survives its honest arena 2026-07-26 01:03:37 -07:00
exp-010b-atomic1-best-candidate.md simulation/lab: document the exp-010b challenger routers 2026-07-26 02:04:23 -07:00
exp-010b-atomicopus1-best-candidate.go simulation/lab: record the exp-010b Opus-arm verdict 2026-07-25 20:03:04 -07:00
exp-010b-atomicopus1-best-candidate.md simulation/lab: document the exp-010b challenger routers 2026-07-26 02:04:23 -07:00
exp-011-code-gen2.md simulation/lab: add exp-011, the code_gen2 insight-transfer run 2026-07-24 16:37:25 -07:00
exp-011-gen2-best-candidate.go simulation/lab: add exp-011, the code_gen2 insight-transfer run 2026-07-24 16:37:25 -07:00
exp-012-cold-cache.md simulation/lab: close exp-012 with a negative and its design limit 2026-07-26 13:15:23 -07:00