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lnd/simulation/lab/experiments
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Olaoluwa Osuntokun 39103864c7 simulation/lab: exp-032, margins hold and magnitudes humble 
In this commit, we close the simulator program's last experiment.
The release candidate's lead over stock lnd re-pins CI-solid on six
of seven fresh-file tiers at n=30, with the exp-019 collapse
reproducing on unseen files. The exp-030 point estimates do not
re-pin — bug and fix are both indistinguishable from zero on thirty
fresh mix files — so the record now says what survives: the
mechanism and its ground-truth counters, never the deltas. The
degraded-mainnet deficit halves and loses significance while
mx_c3's exact success invariance holds, and the objective's
abandonment subsidy logs its third sighting. The correction is
written into the exp-030 writeup; the PR draft update follows on
the branch.
2026-07-31 00:54:04 -07:00
..
exp-001-param-smoke.md simulation: add evolved router champions and lab notebook 2026-07-24 13:01:06 -07:00
exp-002-param-run1.md simulation: add evolved router champions and lab notebook 2026-07-24 13:01:06 -07:00
exp-002b-bimodal-knob.md simulation/lab: turn the knob WHY.md said we never turned 2026-07-26 13:55:48 -07:00
exp-003-seed-router-vs-lnd.md simulation: add evolved router champions and lab notebook 2026-07-24 13:01:06 -07:00
exp-004-code-evolution.md simulation: add evolved router champions and lab notebook 2026-07-24 13:01:06 -07:00
exp-004-sim-audit.md simulation: add evolved router champions and lab notebook 2026-07-24 13:01:06 -07:00
exp-005-sim-audit.md simulation: add evolved router champions and lab notebook 2026-07-24 13:01:06 -07:00
exp-006-breakthrough.md simulation/lab: correct the record on the bimodal prior 2026-07-26 02:33:34 -07:00
exp-007-mix-followup.md simulation: add evolved router champions and lab notebook 2026-07-24 13:01:06 -07:00
exp-008-drift-evolution.md simulation/lab: close exp-008 -- time-awareness re-evolves, loses anyway 2026-07-24 20:08:33 -07:00
exp-008-drift1-best-candidate.go simulation/lab: close exp-008 -- time-awareness re-evolves, loses anyway 2026-07-24 20:08:33 -07:00
exp-008-drift1-best-candidate.md simulation: document the drift1 winner, resolve exp-008 in the docs 2026-07-24 20:26:46 -07:00
exp-009-mainnet-validation.md simulation/lab: add mainnet-graph validation results 2026-07-24 13:24:22 -07:00
exp-010-opus1-best-candidate.go simulation/lab: close exp-010 with the Opus 5 reflection A/B verdict 2026-07-25 17:07:02 -07:00
exp-010-opus1-best-candidate.md simulation/lab: document the exp-010 challenger routers 2026-07-25 18:01:15 -07:00
exp-010-opusmed1-best-candidate.go simulation/lab: close exp-010 with the Opus 5 reflection A/B verdict 2026-07-25 17:07:02 -07:00
exp-010-opusmed1-best-candidate.md simulation/lab: document the exp-010 challenger routers 2026-07-25 18:01:15 -07:00
exp-010-split2-best-candidate.go simulation/lab: record the exp-010 codex-arm verdict 2026-07-25 03:11:51 -07:00
exp-010-splitting-pressure.md simulation/lab: correct the exp-010 collapse attribution 2026-07-25 18:02:28 -07:00
exp-010b-atomic-splitting.md simulation/lab: close exp-010b -- the champion survives its honest arena 2026-07-26 01:03:37 -07:00
exp-010b-atomic1-best-candidate.go simulation/lab: close exp-010b -- the champion survives its honest arena 2026-07-26 01:03:37 -07:00
exp-010b-atomic1-best-candidate.md simulation/lab: document the exp-010b challenger routers 2026-07-26 02:04:23 -07:00
exp-010b-atomicopus1-best-candidate.go simulation/lab: record the exp-010b Opus-arm verdict 2026-07-25 20:03:04 -07:00
exp-010b-atomicopus1-best-candidate.md simulation/lab: document the exp-010b challenger routers 2026-07-26 02:04:23 -07:00
exp-011-code-gen2.md simulation/lab: retract exp-016's mechanism, three guesses deep 2026-07-26 23:44:36 -07:00
exp-011-gen2-best-candidate.go simulation/lab: add exp-011, the code_gen2 insight-transfer run 2026-07-24 16:37:25 -07:00
exp-012-cold-cache.md simulation: reconcile the stale stubs the docs pass found 2026-07-26 14:41:37 -07:00
exp-013-hybrid-continuation.md simulation/lab: exp-013, the give-up attractor 2026-07-26 18:55:53 -07:00
exp-013-hybrid1-best-candidate.go simulation/lab: exp-013, the give-up attractor 2026-07-26 18:55:53 -07:00
exp-013-hybrid1-validation.json simulation/lab: exp-013, the give-up attractor 2026-07-26 18:55:53 -07:00
exp-014-traffic-engine.md simulation/lab: write up exp-014, the traffic engine fix 2026-07-26 19:20:52 -07:00
exp-015-churn-ladder.json simulation/lab: exp-015, exp-008 called a tie a loss 2026-07-26 19:58:09 -07:00
exp-015-churn-ladder.md simulation/lab: kill the hb1-churn hypothesis at n=40 2026-07-26 22:42:13 -07:00
exp-015-hb1-churn-n40.json simulation/lab: kill the hb1-churn hypothesis at n=40 2026-07-26 22:42:13 -07:00
exp-016-atomic1-importer.go simulation/lab: exp-016, free knowledge helps the champions and hurts lnd 2026-07-26 23:06:50 -07:00
exp-016-mxc3-importer.go simulation/lab: exp-016, free knowledge helps the champions and hurts lnd 2026-07-26 23:06:50 -07:00
exp-016-served-weights.json simulation/lab: exp-016, free knowledge helps the champions and hurts lnd 2026-07-26 23:06:50 -07:00
exp-016-served-weights.md simulation/lab: retract exp-016's mechanism, three guesses deep 2026-07-26 23:44:36 -07:00
exp-017-generator-families.md simulation/lab: exp-017, rank is monotone, the margin is not 2026-07-27 00:30:15 -07:00
exp-017-results-summary.json simulation/lab: exp-017, the paradigm survives de-circularization 2026-07-27 00:21:54 -07:00
exp-018-adjudication.json simulation/lab: exp-018, the band is not a gepa artifact 2026-07-27 10:57:50 -07:00
exp-018-omni-adjudication.md simulation/lab: exp-018, the band is not a gepa artifact 2026-07-27 10:57:50 -07:00
exp-018-omni1-best-candidate.go simulation/lab: exp-018, the band is not a gepa artifact 2026-07-27 10:57:50 -07:00
exp-018-validation-summary.json simulation/lab: exp-018, the band is not a gepa artifact 2026-07-27 10:57:50 -07:00
exp-019-degraded-attribution.md simulation/lab: exp-019b bounds the anomaly and kills its story 2026-07-27 01:48:10 -07:00
exp-019-results-summary.json simulation/lab: exp-019, the 8.6x dies and the margin survives 2026-07-27 01:05:53 -07:00
exp-019b-results-summary.json simulation/lab: exp-019b bounds the anomaly and kills its story 2026-07-27 01:48:10 -07:00
exp-020-adjudication-summary.json simulation/lab: exp-020, mx_c3 defends the championship 2026-07-27 00:53:17 -07:00
exp-020-championship-adjudication.md simulation/lab: exp-020, mx_c3 defends the championship 2026-07-27 00:53:17 -07:00
exp-021-distillation-patch.md command-center: publish exp-021, the fix and the null (v62) 2026-07-27 12:16:22 -07:00
exp-021-results-summary.json simulation/lab: exp-021, one fix lands and one theory dies 2026-07-27 11:58:17 -07:00
exp-022-breed-under-degradation.md simulation/lab: exp-022 verdict, robustness bought with unbounded retries 2026-07-27 18:51:20 -07:00
exp-022-deg1-best-candidate.go simulation/lab: exp-022 harvest, the first breed under a lying channel 2026-07-27 17:44:24 -07:00
exp-022-deg1-run.log.gz simulation/lab: exp-022 harvest, the first breed under a lying channel 2026-07-27 17:44:24 -07:00
exp-022-deg1-summary.json simulation/lab: exp-022 harvest, the first breed under a lying channel 2026-07-27 17:44:24 -07:00
exp-022-results-summary.json simulation/lab: exp-022 verdict, robustness bought with unbounded retries 2026-07-27 18:51:20 -07:00
exp-023-atomic1-audit.md simulation/lab: audit atomic1, the economic world's native 2026-07-28 02:26:36 -07:00
exp-023-econ-realism-design.md simulation/lab: exp-023 design spec, economic realism in five stages 2026-07-27 13:59:24 -07:00
exp-023-econ-realism-verdict.md simulation/lab: exp-023 verdict, the edge is informational 2026-07-28 02:16:20 -07:00
exp-023-results-summary.json simulation/lab: exp-023 verdict, the edge is informational 2026-07-28 02:16:20 -07:00
exp-023-stage-a-landed.md simulation/lab: record stage A landing and its three findings 2026-07-27 22:32:51 -07:00
exp-023-stage-b-landed.md simulation/lab: record the mainnet nondeterminism decision 2026-07-27 23:31:48 -07:00
exp-023-stage-c-landed.md simulation/lab: record the stage C merge decisions 2026-07-28 00:16:00 -07:00
exp-023-stage-d-landed.md simulation/lab: record the stage D merge decisions 2026-07-28 01:11:23 -07:00
exp-023-stage-e-landed.md simulation/lab: record the stage E merge decisions, build phase done 2026-07-28 01:54:54 -07:00
exp-023-sweep-commands.md simulation/lab: exp-023 verdict, the edge is informational 2026-07-28 02:16:20 -07:00
exp-023-sweep-tables.txt.gz simulation/lab: exp-023 verdict, the edge is informational 2026-07-28 02:16:20 -07:00
exp-024-ceiling-arm.md simulation/lab: exp-024, the ceiling arm converges below the band 2026-07-27 16:30:12 -07:00
exp-024-ceiling1-adjudication.json simulation/lab: exp-024, the ceiling arm converges below the band 2026-07-27 16:30:12 -07:00
exp-024-ceiling1-best-candidate.go simulation/lab: exp-024, the ceiling arm converges below the band 2026-07-27 16:30:12 -07:00
exp-024-ceiling1-run.log.gz simulation/lab: exp-024, the ceiling arm converges below the band 2026-07-27 16:30:12 -07:00
exp-025-econ-evolution.md simulation/lab: exp-025 verdict, the fee-budget specialist 2026-07-29 00:19:21 -07:00
exp-025-econ1-failed-run.log.gz simulation/lab: harvest exp-025, the first economic-world winner 2026-07-28 23:53:25 -07:00
exp-025-econ2-best-candidate.go simulation/lab: harvest exp-025, the first economic-world winner 2026-07-28 23:53:25 -07:00
exp-025-econ2-run.log.gz simulation/lab: harvest exp-025, the first economic-world winner 2026-07-28 23:53:25 -07:00
exp-025-econ2-summary.json simulation/lab: harvest exp-025, the first economic-world winner 2026-07-28 23:53:25 -07:00
exp-025-results-summary.json simulation/lab: exp-025 verdict, the fee-budget specialist 2026-07-29 00:19:21 -07:00
exp-025-sweep-commands.md simulation/lab: exp-025 verdict, the fee-budget specialist 2026-07-29 00:19:21 -07:00
exp-025-sweep-tables.txt.gz simulation/lab: exp-025 verdict, the fee-budget specialist 2026-07-29 00:19:21 -07:00
exp-026-compose-world.md simulation/lab: exp-026, the compose world holds 2026-07-29 15:48:15 -07:00
exp-026-full1-run.log.gz simulation/lab: exp-026, the compose world holds 2026-07-29 15:48:15 -07:00
exp-026-full1-summary.json simulation/lab: exp-026, the compose world holds 2026-07-29 15:48:15 -07:00
exp-027-deg-mechanism-split.json simulation/lab: exp-027 addendum 2, the boundary bug and the 14/14 final 2026-07-29 19:49:14 -07:00
exp-027-identity-flaky.json simulation/lab: exp-027, the flag flip pays the champions' margin 2026-07-29 17:13:31 -07:00
exp-027-interval-lnd-benchmark.md simulation/lab: exp-027 addendum 2, the boundary bug and the 14/14 final 2026-07-29 19:49:14 -07:00
exp-027-isim-commands.md simulation/lab: exp-027 addendum 2, the boundary bug and the 14/14 final 2026-07-29 19:49:14 -07:00
exp-027-isim-results-summary.json simulation/lab: exp-027 addendum 2, the boundary bug and the 14/14 final 2026-07-29 19:49:14 -07:00
exp-027-isim-tables.txt.gz simulation/lab: exp-027, the flag flip pays the champions' margin 2026-07-29 17:13:31 -07:00
exp-027-prod-default.json simulation/lab: exp-027 addendum 2, the boundary bug and the 14/14 final 2026-07-29 19:49:14 -07:00
exp-027-round3-tables.txt.gz simulation/lab: exp-027 addendum, round 3 splits down the middle 2026-07-29 17:21:19 -07:00
exp-027-round6-tables.txt.gz simulation/lab: exp-027 addendum 2, the boundary bug and the 14/14 final 2026-07-29 19:49:14 -07:00
exp-028-compose-escape-specialist-seed.md simulation/lab: exp-028, the give-up attractor is a rule 2026-07-30 11:39:11 -07:00
exp-028-full2-best-candidate.go simulation/lab: exp-028, the give-up attractor is a rule 2026-07-30 11:39:11 -07:00
exp-028-full2-run.log.gz simulation/lab: exp-028, the give-up attractor is a rule 2026-07-30 11:39:11 -07:00
exp-028-full2-summary.json simulation/lab: exp-028, the give-up attractor is a rule 2026-07-30 11:39:11 -07:00
exp-028-heldout-rerun.json simulation/lab: exp-028, the give-up attractor is a rule 2026-07-30 11:39:11 -07:00
exp-029-commands.md simulation/lab: exp-029, the ordering survives on foreign balances 2026-07-30 12:47:16 -07:00
exp-029-fee-liquidity-signal.json simulation/lab: exp-029, the ordering survives on foreign balances 2026-07-30 12:47:16 -07:00
exp-029-foreign-balance-sheet.md simulation/lab: exp-029, the ordering survives on foreign balances 2026-07-30 12:47:16 -07:00
exp-029-gen-tier.py simulation/lab: exp-029, the ordering survives on foreign balances 2026-07-30 12:47:16 -07:00
exp-029-results-summary.json simulation/lab: exp-029, the ordering survives on foreign balances 2026-07-30 12:47:16 -07:00
exp-029-tables.txt.gz simulation/lab: exp-029, the ordering survives on foreign balances 2026-07-30 12:47:16 -07:00
exp-029-tier-readme.json simulation/lab: exp-029, the ordering survives on foreign balances 2026-07-30 12:47:16 -07:00
exp-030-commands.md simulation/lab: exp-030 addendum, the committed fix validates 2026-07-30 17:46:48 -07:00
exp-030-counters.json simulation/lab: exp-030, misattribution manufactures innocence 2026-07-30 17:19:32 -07:00
exp-030-degmix-mechanism.md simulation/lab: exp-032, margins hold and magnitudes humble 2026-07-31 00:54:04 -07:00
exp-030-results-summary.json simulation/lab: exp-030 addendum, the committed fix validates 2026-07-30 17:46:48 -07:00
exp-030-tables.txt.gz simulation/lab: exp-030 addendum, the committed fix validates 2026-07-30 17:46:48 -07:00
exp-031-compose-closed.md simulation/lab: exp-031, the compose world is closed 2026-07-31 00:03:46 -07:00
exp-031-full3-run.log.gz simulation/lab: exp-031, the compose world is closed 2026-07-31 00:03:46 -07:00
exp-031-full3-summary.json simulation/lab: exp-031, the compose world is closed 2026-07-31 00:03:46 -07:00
exp-032-commands.md simulation/lab: exp-032, margins hold and magnitudes humble 2026-07-31 00:54:04 -07:00
exp-032-results-summary.json simulation/lab: exp-032, margins hold and magnitudes humble 2026-07-31 00:54:04 -07:00
exp-032-tables.txt.gz simulation/lab: exp-032, margins hold and magnitudes humble 2026-07-31 00:54:04 -07:00
exp-032-wider-corpus-repin.md simulation/lab: exp-032, margins hold and magnitudes humble 2026-07-31 00:54:04 -07:00